"Un film spettacolare! Ma incasserà pochissimo..."

Cineguru segnala un interessantissimo pezzo dell'LA Times su come le grandi produzioni cerchino di gestire i media e le previsioni sul box office dei loro film in un'epoca in cui queste girano all'impazzata in rete e rischiano di compromettere la percezione che un determinato incasso avrà sul resto dei giornalisti:

Like any reporter who covers the film business, I am forever being told by studio executives, agents, producers and publicists how great an upcoming film might be -- how I not only have to see the new movie, but also (pretty please) write about it. Six days of the week, it’s a steady stream of that kind of boundless optimism and enthusiasm. But come Wednesday, some of those very same people pull an about-face, suggesting that their otherwise great film may not do very well at the box office.

Because I write a column that often makes box-office predictions before a film is released, the studios in particular are relentless in trying to lower my expectations. It’s an obvious game: If they lower the bar as far as possible, even a modest debut will look like a blockbuster in comparison. But I am not in the game of managing a studio’s expectations; rather, I want to be able to come up with the most accurate forecast possible. And that means I almost always pick a number greater than the studio’s low-ball estimate.

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“Cloverfield.” My prediction: $36 million. Paramount’s response: There is no way a low-budget genre film with no stars can gross more than $20 million. Opening weekend: $40.1 million.

“I Am Legend.” My prediction: $60 million or more. Warner Bros.' response: Will Smith may be a huge star, but we don’t think this film can open to $50 million. Opening weekend: $77.2 million.

“Iron Man.” My prediction: $70 million. Paramount’s response: We’d love that number, but it isn’t possible with a comic book no one knows. Opening weekend: $102.1 million.

“Jumper.” My prediction: $38 million. Fox's response: We are hoping the movie can just get to $20 million. Opening weekend: $27.4 million.